Federal Reserve — May 2026

🪞 Взлом Центробанка Бангладеш - как Lazarus почти украли $1 млрд через SWIFT

➡️Разбор одной из самых известных финансовых кибератак в истории: группировка Lazarus скомпрометировала инфраструктуру Центробанка Бангладеш, получила доступ к SWIFT Alliance Access и попыталась вывести почти миллиард долларов из Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка.

➡️Что сделало атаку возможной ⏺Отсутствие сегментации между SWIFT и корпоративной сетью ⏺Компрометация сотрудников через spear-phishing ⏺Использование дешёвого сетевого оборудования без нормальной изоляции ⏺Долгое скрытое присутствие внутри инфраструктуры банка

➡️Как действовали атакующие ⏺Месяцами изучали внутренние процессы банка ⏺Дампили учётные данные и мониторили операторов SWIFT ⏺Написали кастомную малварь под Alliance Access ⏺Подменяли проверки целостности и криптографические операции ⏺Автоматически подписывали SWIFT-сообщения от имени банка

➡️Почему атака была особенно опасной ⏺Для ФРС Нью-Йорка транзакции выглядели полностью легитимными ⏺Использовались настоящие банковские ключи и валидные SWIFT-сообщения ⏺Вредонос даже отключил матричный принтер, печатавший транзакционные логи ⏺Операция была синхронизирована с выходными в Бангладеш и США

Читать статью

Rick Academy 🦠 #статья

💱 The cryptocurrency market is currently consolidating with Bitcoin is currently in the $75, 000 to $80, 000 range, weighed down by recent ETF outflows and global macroeconomic tensions. 🤑

Analysts project that an expected sustained market rise may gain momentum in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, targeting Bitcoin to test the $95, 000 to $115 ,000 range, contingent on Federal Reserve decisions and improved ETF inflows. 📈📈

Team Aditya Tech ✅️

🔔 Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair with Bitcoin at $77,400

❗️ Kevin Warsh was sworn is as the 17th Federal Reserve chair at a White House ceremony on Friday, becoming the first Fed leader to take the oath at the executive mansion since Alan Greenspan in 1987. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administered the oath. Warsh, 56, succeeds Jerome Powell, who held the position since 2018 and will remain on the Fed board as a governor until 2028. The Senate had confirmed Warsh on May 13 in a narrow 54-45 vote, with Democratic Senator John Fetterman as the only crossover.

⚠️ “Our mandate at the Fed is to promote price stability and maximum employment,” Warsh said after being sworn in. “When we pursue those aims with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, growth stronger, real take-home pay higher.”

☄️ Warsh pledged to lead a “reform-oriented Federal Reserve” and vowed he would never predetermine interest rates at any elected official’s request. President Trump, who had repeatedly attacked Powell over rate policy, told attendees he wants Warsh to be “totally independent.”

🗓 Jerome Powell Leaves the Fed: Expectations for Interest Rates at the Next Meeting

📊 According to data from the cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket, the market overwhelmingly anticipates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. This meeting is critically important as it will be the first one after Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair has ended. Investors are closely watching how policy will be shaped under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of no change in interest rates at the June 17 meeting is 98 percent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a rate cut by 25 basis points is estimated at 1 percent, and the probability of a cut by 50 basis points or more is below 1 percent. The markets also consider scenarios for rate hikes to be extremely unlikely. The probability of a 25 basis points increase remains below 1 percent, and the probability of an increase of 50 basis points or more is also below 1 percent.

🔔 Jerome Powell, who successfully navigated many critical periods during his tenure, including the pandemic, high inflation, and banking crises, completed his eight-year term as Fed Chair on Friday. Despite the end of his term, Powell announced that he will remain on the Fed's Board of Governors and continue to fulfill his duties until the investigation into the reconstruction of the central bank's headquarters in Washington is completed. This will allow Powell to continue influencing interest rate policy until 2028.

🔔 Iran's Response to US Ceasefire Proposal: Implications for Oil and Crypto Markets

❗️ Iran has conveyed its response to the US ceasefire proposal through intermediaries from Pakistan. While the details of the document remain undisclosed, market reactions have been noticeable. According to The Guardian, Washington aimed to use the negotiations to reduce tensions in the Hormuz Strait and bring Iran back to the nuclear deal discussions.

📉 Investors are closely monitoring not only the Middle East but also the potential impact on oil prices and inflation in the US. If oil prices rise rapidly again, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to rush into lowering interest rates, which could negatively affect markets, especially crypto and tech stocks. Andrew Slimmon from Morgan Stanley Investment Management stated, If this happens in the next couple of weeks, rate cuts could begin by the end of the year

⚠️ Tensions in the Middle East remain high. The Guardian reported that UAE and Kuwait's air defense systems intercepted drones entering their airspace. Additionally, a vessel off the coast of Qatar caught fire after a drone attack, and another attack occurred near Erbil in northern Iraq targeting an Iranian Kurdish group camp.

🔍 Market Awaits Employment Data and Reports: This Week Will Determine Crypto Asset Dynamics

🔔 The week begins with three key events: new employment data from the U.S., reports from major public companies in the sector, and signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Each of these could alter interest rate expectations and set the direction for Bitcoin and other assets.

📊 The main event of the week is the U.S. labor market report. The forecast for new jobs in April is around 73,000 compared to 178,000 the previous month. If the figure is weak, the market may intensify expectations for an earlier rate cut, supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Strong data would have the opposite effect, pushing back the rate cut scenario and increasing market pressure.

📈 In addition to payrolls, the market will receive additional signals such as unemployment claims, the services sector activity index, and wage data. Each of these indicators affects inflation expectations and collectively shapes the picture the Fed relies on.

⚠️ Concurrently, the market is monitoring corporate earnings. This week, results will be presented by Strategy, Coinbase, MARA, Hut 8, CleanSpark, and Core Scientific. This will allow for an assessment of the mining and exchange segments, particularly focusing on Bitcoin sales by miners.

Последняя неделя месяца выдалась плотной: Big Tech показал рекордные квартальные результаты, ЦБ РФ продолжил цикл смягчения, а ФРС удивила рынок редким расколом голосов. Нефть тем временем обновила 4-летние максимумы на фоне блокады Ормуза.

Собрали главное 👇

💰 Alphabet отчиталась с рекордной облачной выручкой $20 млрд Google Cloud вырос на 63% год к году, backlog почти удвоился до $462 млрд. Alphabet повысила прогноз capex на 2026 до $180–190 млрд и пообещала «значительно увеличить» инвестиции в 2027. Чистая прибыль взлетела на 81% до $62,6 млрд. Облачный бизнес теперь составляет 18% выручки Alphabet.

📱 Apple показала рекордный Q2: $111,2 млрд выручки, iPhone +22% Сервисный бизнес Apple впервые превысил $31 млрд за квартал (+16%), обогнав Mac, iPad и Wearables вместе взятые. iPhone вырос на 21,7% — спрос не ослабевает, несмотря на насыщение рынка. Services приносят почти половину валовой прибыли компании при доле в выручке меньше трети.

🏦 ЦБ РФ снизил ключевую ставку до 14,5% — восьмое снижение подряд Снижение на 50 б.п. с пиковых 21% продолжает цикл смягчения. Инфляция на 20 апреля составила 5,7%, ЦБ ожидает 4,5–5,5% по итогам года. Средняя ставка до конца 2026 прогнозируется в диапазоне 13,3–14,0%.

🤖 Сбер и Яндекс запросили у государства 400–450 млрд рублей на ИИ Средства пойдут на строительство дата-центров и развитие российских AI-моделей. Сбер параллельно представил крупное обновление GigaChat Ultra с персональным ИИ-помощником, а Яндекс продолжает развивать YandexGPT и Алису. В условиях дефицита вычислительных мощностей в РФ — это попытка обеспечить инфраструктурный задел на годы вперёд.

🏛 ФРС оставила ставку 3,5–3,75% — редчайший раскол 8–4 Крупнейшее число несогласных за 30 лет. Четыре члена FOMC голосовали за иное решение, что отражает глубокий раскол в оценке инфляции и геополитических рисков.

🛢 Нефть Brent коснулась $126 за баррель — максимум за 4 года Блокада Ормузского пролива и срыв мирных переговоров с Ираном толкают нефть вверх. Brent за неделю прибавила почти 15%, хотя к закрытию откатилась к $114. Аналитики пересматривают прогнозы в сторону повышения.

🐹 Nikita Nikolaev | Quant Scout & HFT Career Coach