Interest rates — August 2026

Hawkish Warsh speech lifts rate hike bets, pressures gold and Asian stocks

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Traders now see a 60.4% chance of a quarter-point hike next month, while gold and Asian equities declined.

• Deutsche Bank expects 50 basis points of Fed hikes in September and December. • Analysts say Warsh emphasized inflation risks, the 2% target, and Fed independence. • Gavekal notes Warsh’s stance on short-term rates conflicts with recent US Treasury buyback plans.

@OtetMarkets_en

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چشم‌انداز بازار جهانی #فارکس در هفته پیش‌رو

هفته آینده تمرکز اصلی بازار بر گزارش ماهانه مشاغل ایالات متحده خواهد بود. در وال استریت سرمایه‌گذاران گزارش‌های درآمدی نام‌های بزرگی همچون Dell Technologies و Broadcom را ارزیابی می‌کنند.

● دوشنبه 31 اوت: 🇨🇳 آمار [Manufacturing PMI (Aug)] چین 🇩🇪 شاخص [German CPI (MoM)(Aug)]

● سه‌شنبه: 🇩🇪 آمار [Retail Sales (YoY)(Jul)] 🇺🇸 شاخص [ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)] 🇺🇸 آمار [JOLTS Job Openings (Jul)]

● چهارشنبه: 🇦🇺 آمار [GDP (QoQ)(Q2)]‌ استرالیا 🇳🇿 تعیین نرخ بهره [RBNZ Interest Rate Decision] نیوزیلند 🇺🇸 آمار [ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)] 🇨🇦 تعیین نرخ بهره [BoC Interest Rate Decision] کانادا

● پنج‌شنبه: 🇨🇭 شاخص [CPI (YoY)(Aug)] سوئیس 🇺🇸 آمار [Initial Jobless Claims] 🇺🇸 شاخص [ISM Services PMI (Aug)]

● جمعه: 🇪🇺 آمار [Retail Sales (YoY)(Jul)] اروپا 🇨🇦 آمار[Unemployment Rate (Aug)] 🇺🇸 آمار [Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)] 🇺🇸 آمار [Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)] 🇺🇸 آمار [Unemployment Rate (Aug)].

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DO'STLAR YODLAB OLISH UCUN SO'ZLAR.😁🙃👇👇 ✍️1. EXACERBATE (VERB): aggravate  Synonyms: worsen, inflame  Antonyms: calm  Example Sentence:The exorbitant cost of land in urban areas only exacerbated the problem.

✍️2. TENUOUS (ADJECTIVE): slight  Synonyms: insubstantial, flimsy  Antonyms: convincing  Example Sentence: The tenuous link between interest rates and investment.

✍️3. LACKLUSTRE (ADJECTIVE):  uninspired  Synonyms: uninspiring, unimaginative  Antonyms: inspired  Example Sentence: No excuses were made for the team's lacklustre performance.

✍️4. CONTENTION (NOUN):disagreement  Synonyms: dispute disputation  Antonyms: agreement  Example Sentence: The captured territory was the main area of contention between the two countries.

✍️5. PLETHORA (NOUN): excess  Synonyms: abundance, overabundance  Antonyms: dearth  Example Sentence: She always has a plethora of bad jokes.

✍️6. RETICENCE (NOUN): reserve  Synonyms: introversion, restraint  Antonyms: expansiveness  Example Sentence: She paused, as if hesitating to confide, until her anger overcame her reticence.

✍️7. SURMISE (VERB): guess  Synonyms: conjecture, suspect  Antonyms: know  Example Sentence: I surmised that something must be wrong.

✍️8. FALLACIOUS (ADJECTIVE): erroneous  Synonyms: false, untrue  Antonyms: true  Example Sentence: His argument is based on fallacious reasoning.

✍️9. VEIL (VERB):  covert  Synonyms: surreptitious, hidden  Antonyms: overt  Example Sentence:Cold mists veiled the mountain peaks.

✍️10. TRASH (NOUN): nonsense  Synonyms: drivel, pap  Antonyms: logic  Example Sentence: If they read at all, they read trash.  https://t.me/+EWRA7vlOR1kyZDky

🇺🇸 Odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month surge to 49%.

🚨 TODAY IS A BIG DAY FOR CRYPTO.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 10 AM ET.

Markets see a 66.3% chance of a pause and 33.7% chance of a rate hike in September.

Two scenarios:

• If Warsh sounds dovish, we pump. • If he sounds hawkish, we dump.

Expect volatility.

🅰🔠🔡🆎

➡🥇➡ Gold outlook: bullish and bearish setups ahead of the Jackson Hole speech

XAUUSD trades near $4,590 after Wednesday's pullback from a three-month high near $4,697. It recovered part of the decline on Thursday but remains below resistance at $4,680. Explore the possible trading scenarios below 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. Gold fell to around $4,566 on Thursday, a fresh weekly low, before stabilising near $4,590 🥇 The move followed Wednesday's 1.4% decline, the largest one-day drop in a week.

• Background. The pullback followed a drop in weekly jobless claims to 203,000, below forecasts. The data pointed to continued labour-market resilience and supported expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep rates higher for longer.

• Potential triggers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote today at Jackson Hole at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Markets await signals on inflation and interest rates. A softer, rate-cut-leaning tone could support gold towards higher levels 🚀 A more aggressive, rate-hike-leaning stance could lower prices and deepen the pullback.

🪙 Tip for traders

On a rate-cut-leaning stance, gold may rise above $4,430, targeting resistance at $4,680. That view fails if the price drops below $4,430. A short position strengthens below $4,430, targeting $4,320 on a more aggressive message from Warsh. Watch today's speech closely, since it could move prices sharply.

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Gold slips ahead of Fed Chair Warsh speech, set for weekly decline

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,584.30 an ounce late Friday, while futures dropped 0.6%. Prices remain on track for a 0.4% weekly loss after recently touching a three-month high near $4,700.

• Investors await Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks for signals on inflation and rate policy. • Markets see a 34% chance of a September Fed rate hike and 74% by December. • Gold is still up more than 13% in August despite Friday's pullback.

@OtetMarkets_en

Gold holds near $4,600 as markets await Warsh's Jackson Hole speech

Gold prices inched higher on Thursday, with spot XAU/USD at $4,620.68 an ounce at 01:28 ET. Investors focused on upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after sticky U.S. inflation lifted rate hike expectations.

• XAG/USD rose 1.4% to $69.1, while XPT/USD gained 0.9% to $1,852. • The PCE price index increased 3.7% year-on-year in July, above economists’ 3.6% forecast. • Gold-backed ETFs saw strong inflows as fiscal concerns and Treasury actions sustained the debasement trade.

@OtetMarkets_en

Morning Alert.. *RBI may tighten liquidity via iCRR before resorting to repo rate hike* The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may tighten liquidity by imposing an incremental cash reserve ratio (iCRR), requiring banks to park a larger share of fresh deposits with the central bank, before resorting to a repo rate hike to make monetary transmission more effective in a tighter interest rate regime. The possibility of a policy repo rate hike has increased following the release of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) minutes, which were seen as hawkish. Economists now see October as a possibility, against earlier expectations of a rate action in the next financial year. The case for an incremental CRR comes amid rising surplus liquidity in the banking system. Core, or durable, liquidity is expected to increase further as government spending picks up ahead of the festival season. Overnight benchmark rates —weighted average call rate (WACR) for the triparty repo (Treps) rate —have already been trading below the repo rate despite the RBI conducting daily variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to absorb excess liquidity. VRRR auctions are aimed at draining transient liquidity. “We expect the MPC to start the rate hike cycle in December at the latest. We don’t rule out a rate hike in the October policy itself,” said A Prasanna, chief economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.

*Global market action* Dow Jones – Up by 0.34% or 179.35 points FTSE – Down by 0.07% or 8.04 points CAC – Up by 0.27% or 23.19 points DAX – Up by 0.08% or 19.82 points Gift Nifty – Down by 0.16% or 39.50 points

*FII/DII activities* FII – Bought 502.63Cr worth of shares DII – Bought 6425.16Cr worth of shares.

*Major Indian Indices PE* Nifty 50 – 20.5x Nifty Bank – 13.7x

*Stocks with high delivery percentage* HDB Financial Services Ltd – 91% IGIL – 87% Emami Ltd – 75.9% JSW Cement Ltd – 75.7%

*Primary market activities* IPOs opening today Lumino Industries Ltd (Main board) – Issue size 700Cr Kwick Forensic Solutions Ltd (BSE SME) – Issue size 50.77Cr

*Commodities updates* Gold – Rs 159004/10gm, Silver – Rs 238554/kg, Brcrude – Rs 7890/barrel, Copper – Rs 1381/kg.

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Hi guys! 👋

I have decided to start a new Finance Series 💰📚

The goal is simple — to help everyone understand important financial concepts in an easy and practical way.

We’ll start from the basics and gradually move towards advanced topics like investing, markets, financial analysis, and wealth building.

Here are the 50 topics I’ll be covering:

💵 1. What Is Money & How Does the Financial System Work?

🏦 2. How Banks Actually Make Money

💳 3. Credit Cards — How They Really Work

📈 4. Inflation — Why Your Money Loses Value

🏦 5. Interest Rates — Simple vs Compound Interest

🔥 6. Compounding — The Most Powerful Concept in Finance

🏠 7. Assets vs Liabilities

💰 8. Income, Expenses & Cash Flow

🧾 9. Budgeting — How to Manage Your Money

🛡️ 10. Emergency Fund — How Much Do You Need?

💳 11. Good Debt vs Bad Debt

📊 12. Credit Score — What It Means & Why It Matters

💎 13. Net Worth — How to Calculate Your Financial Health

🎯 14. Financial Goals — Short, Medium & Long Term

🧾 15. Taxes — The Basics Everyone Should Understand

🛡️ 16. Insurance — Health, Life & General Insurance

💰 17. Investing vs Saving

🏢 18. Stocks — What You Actually Own

📈 19. Stock Market — How It Works

📊 20. Mutual Funds — How They Work

📦 21. ETFs — What They Are & Why They Matter

📈 22. Index Funds — Why Passive Investing Is Popular

💰 23. SIP — How Systematic Investing Works

💵 24. Dividends — How Investors Earn From Stocks

🏢 25. Market Capitalization — Large, Mid & Small Cap

🐂 26. Bull Market vs Bear Market

🔄 27. Market Cycles — Why Markets Rise & Fall

⚖️ 28. Risk vs Return

🧺 29. Diversification — Don't Put Everything in One Basket

🔍 30. Fundamental Analysis

📉 31. Technical Analysis

🧾 32. Understanding a Company's Income Statement

🏦 33. Understanding the Balance Sheet

💵 34. Understanding the Cash Flow Statement

📊 35. Important Financial Ratios

🧮 36. P/E, P/B, ROE, ROCE & EPS Explained

💎 37. How to Value a Company

📉 38. Market Corrections & Crashes

🧠 39. Psychology of Investing

🚨 40. Common Investment Scams & Red Flags

🥇 41. Gold — Physical Gold vs ETFs vs Digital Gold

🏠 42. Real Estate as an Investment

💰 43. Bonds & Fixed-Income Investments

🏛️ 44. Government Securities

🏦 45. FD vs Debt Funds vs Bonds

🌍 46. International Investing

💱 47. Currency & Exchange Rates

🪙 48. Cryptocurrency — Basics & Risks

🚀 49. IPOs — How They Work

🎯 50. Building a Long-Term Investment Strategy

Double Tap ❤️ If You're Excited For This

Hi guys! 👋

I have decided to start a new Finance Series 💰📚

The goal is simple — to help everyone understand important financial concepts in an easy and practical way.

We’ll start from the basics and gradually move towards advanced topics like investing, markets, financial analysis, and wealth building.

Here are the 50 topics I’ll be covering:

💵 1. What Is Money & How Does the Financial System Work?

🏦 2. How Banks Actually Make Money

💳 3. Credit Cards — How They Really Work

📈 4. Inflation — Why Your Money Loses Value

🏦 5. Interest Rates — Simple vs Compound Interest

🔥 6. Compounding — The Most Powerful Concept in Finance

🏠 7. Assets vs Liabilities

💰 8. Income, Expenses & Cash Flow

🧾 9. Budgeting — How to Manage Your Money

🛡️ 10. Emergency Fund — How Much Do You Need?

💳 11. Good Debt vs Bad Debt

📊 12. Credit Score — What It Means & Why It Matters

💎 13. Net Worth — How to Calculate Your Financial Health

🎯 14. Financial Goals — Short, Medium & Long Term

🧾 15. Taxes — The Basics Everyone Should Understand

🛡️ 16. Insurance — Health, Life & General Insurance

💰 17. Investing vs Saving

🏢 18. Stocks — What You Actually Own

📈 19. Stock Market — How It Works

📊 20. Mutual Funds — How They Work

📦 21. ETFs — What They Are & Why They Matter

📈 22. Index Funds — Why Passive Investing Is Popular

💰 23. SIP — How Systematic Investing Works

💵 24. Dividends — How Investors Earn From Stocks

🏢 25. Market Capitalization — Large, Mid & Small Cap

🐂 26. Bull Market vs Bear Market

🔄 27. Market Cycles — Why Markets Rise & Fall

⚖️ 28. Risk vs Return

🧺 29. Diversification — Don't Put Everything in One Basket

🔍 30. Fundamental Analysis

📉 31. Technical Analysis

🧾 32. Understanding a Company's Income Statement

🏦 33. Understanding the Balance Sheet

💵 34. Understanding the Cash Flow Statement

📊 35. Important Financial Ratios

🧮 36. P/E, P/B, ROE, ROCE & EPS Explained

💎 37. How to Value a Company

📉 38. Market Corrections & Crashes

🧠 39. Psychology of Investing

🚨 40. Common Investment Scams & Red Flags

🥇 41. Gold — Physical Gold vs ETFs vs Digital Gold

🏠 42. Real Estate as an Investment

💰 43. Bonds & Fixed-Income Investments

🏛️ 44. Government Securities

🏦 45. FD vs Debt Funds vs Bonds

🌍 46. International Investing

💱 47. Currency & Exchange Rates

🪙 48. Cryptocurrency — Basics & Risks

🚀 49. IPOs — How They Work

🎯 50. Building a Long-Term Investment Strategy

Double Tap ❤️ If You're Excited For This

🏭 The global economy is undergoing a fundamental structural shift. The last 30 years (from 1990 to 2020) were defined by disinflationary trends, but we are now entering an era of high inflation, increased price volatility, and long-term interest rate hikes.

I came across an interesting interview with Lacy Hunt – one of the most distinguished living macroeconomists and a former Fed economist.

Here are the key takeaways you need to know:

1️⃣ Why are store prices continuing to rise and won't come back down? For the past 30 years, we lived in a uniquely cheap world thanks to China's integration into global trade. Corporations built factories where labor cost pennies, driving down the cost of everything from T-shirts to smartphones. That era is officially over. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the world is fragmenting into opposing blocs. Manufacturing is being rushed back to expensive Western countries, and instead of relying on efficient "just-in-time" logistics, companies are forced to stockpile inventory "just in case." Expensive labor and severed supply chains will serve as a powerful engine for inflation for decades to come.

2️⃣ What about Artificial Intelligence? Won't technology make everything cheaper? Many hope that AI will replace workers, boost productivity, and make goods dirt cheap. That is a dangerous illusion. Right now, the AI revolution requires colossal physical resources: energy, chips, new data centers, and tons of copper. AI is burning through massive amounts of real capital today, driving up raw material and energy prices, while any hypothetical economic payoff is still a long way off.

3️⃣ What is happening to our savings, and why are the rich getting richer? The government is spending massive amounts of money it doesn't have – the US budget deficit has reached a staggering $2.1 trillion in peacetime. To finance this spending, the Fed is essentially running covert money printing. This creates a K-shaped economy: the wealthy, who own stocks and real estate, get richer as asset markets inflate. � Everyday people get poorer. Inflation acts as the ultimate hidden tax, eroding real incomes and purchasing power.

� The main takeaway: persistent market growth, inflation, and severe market swings are our new normal. By understanding the new rules of the game, you can profit across various assets—stocks, crypto – since they are bound to rise as fiat currency continues to devalue.

The world has changed, and the old rules of saving no longer work ⌛

🔔 On Wednesday, August 26 at 1:30 am UTC, Australia will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

The main gauge of Australian inflation, it guides the Reserve Bank of Australia on interest rates.

Hotter inflation keeps rates high for longer, driving AUD up and pushing AUD/USD up. Cooling inflation signals rate cuts, dragging AUD down and pulling AUD/USD down.

CPI (YoY): 📊 Previous: 3.8% 📊 Forecast: 3.2%

A drop to 3.2% is already priced in, so a big move needs a surprise in the actual number.

Here’s how the market could react this time: 🔼 Data above 3.2% may drive AUD/USD up 🔽 Data below 3.2% may drive AUD/USD down

📌 How to trade on the news with Olymptrade:

1. Open Olymptrade in FT/Forex mode 10 minutes before the release. 2. Select AUD/USD. 3. Set your trade amount and duration (5–15 minutes recommended). 4. Use a pending order to execute at the exact moment of release. 5. Make your forecast.

What’s your forecast?

👍 AUD/USD will go up 👎 AUD/USD will go down

🟢 Iran or the USA Who can sustain a prolonged war without being forced to alter its political objectives first?

• The real measure of endurance is multidimensional: It includes time management, political and strategic sustainability, financial and military endurance, morale and combat readiness, governmental adaptability, societal resilience, public opinion, escalation management, operational tempo, and the ability to absorb shocks and develop solutions. • The economic burden is asymmetric. The United States absorbs costs through higher energy prices, inflation, interest rates, debt, military spending, fuel pressures, and market disruption. Iran faces a severe shock but draws on an established “resistance economy” and mechanisms of economic survival and adaptation. • War does not distribute economic gains evenly. Some U.S. sectors—particularly oil and refining—may benefit, but these gains accrue primarily to private companies and do not necessarily relieve pressure on American households. The decisive issue is which side can absorb economic costs longer before those costs translate into domestic political pressure. • U.S. military superiority has encountered structural constraints: ammunition consumption, supply chains, global force deployment, political costs, and—most importantly—the difficulty of converting battlefield superiority into political outcomes. • Washington is paying a significant political price. The study identifies declining credibility, difficulty translating military achievements into political gains, and failure to achieve stated objectives. By contrast, it argues that the war has, so far, strengthened the Iranian regime’s legitimacy and contributed to domestic cohesion. • The psychological and reputational costs are also asymmetric. Iran’s ability to withstand U.S. military power despite the enormous disparity in capabilities and resources has damaged perceptions of American military strength, with implications for how China and Russia assess U.S. power. The study also points to declining U.S. morale and readiness, alongside growing doubts over the decision to enter the war. • Iran has turned endurance itself into a strategy. Its willingness to absorb the costs of war is presented as a means of preserving strategic leverage—including its ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure and negotiating tool. • Washington has suffered strategic losses beyond the battlefield: declining support for Israel in U.S. public opinion and questions about the credibility of the American security umbrella after the limits of its ability to protect allies and overseas bases became more visible. • Iran’s principal strategic gain is the leverage surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The study argues that Tehran has strengthened its practical ability to use the Strait as a political and negotiating instrument capable of imposing costs on its adversaries. Its countervailing cost is erosion of regional trust in Iran. • The information and perception war has become an extension of the military confrontation. Both sides seek to shape public opinion, influence the adversary’s calculations, challenge competing narratives, and project their respective capabilities.

The Core Strategic Finding

• Iran appears weaker economically and militarily, yet more resilient than Washington initially anticipated. According to the study, Tehran has demonstrated an ability to absorb strikes, regenerate combat capabilities, withstand sanctions, operate within a survival-oriented economy, and turn the duration of the war itself into a source of pressure. • The U.S. can absorb the immediate financial burden—but its more serious vulnerability is political and strategic sustainability. This is identified as the potential breaking point of American endurance, compounded by the operational paralysis and strain created by maintaining military deployments across the globe. • Even if U.S. operational capacity remains intact, prolonged warfare carries a steep cumulative cost.

Arizona's Democrat AG just cleared Arizona's Democrat Governor. Hobbs took $400,000 from a foster care contractor. They got a rate hike. Mayes says no case. I chair Judiciary and Elections. I'm asking the Republican county attorney to finish the job Mayes wouldn't. https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2026/08/21/mayes-declines-hobbs-prosecution-in-sunshine-case-petersen-calls-decision-political/

U.S. housing affordability just worsened for the first time since 2023. Higher borrowing costs are eating into what buyers can afford. Interest rates don’t just move bond charts. They eventually reach mortgages, businesses, and consumers too.

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💰📉Why ex-Soros employee’s bid to fix US economy and contain fallout from Trump’s Iran war & AI boom is doomed

The US Treasury’s push to increase buybacks of its long-term bonds to at least $4 billion is no routine move, signaling a looming US crisis and exposing divisions between two Trump proteges: ex-Soros employee and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Bilderberg darling and Fed chief Kevin Warsh.

What is Bessent doing?

Critics say he is manipulating the bond market to push borrowing costs back down, calling the maneuver “quantitative easing-lite". What do they mean? When the Federal Reserve creates money to buy bonds and drive down interest rates, it’s called quantitative easing (QE). Bessent's Treasury isn’t printing dollars, but its maneuver mimics the same effect – that's why it is labeled “QE-lite.”

Why now?

🔴 30-year Treasury yields surged past 5.3%, hitting their highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This was because:

❤️ Trump derailed US-Iran peace talks and fears of a wider war pushed oil above $90 a barrel, fueling inflation fears and rattling markets. Investors responded by selling long-term US bonds, fearing inflation would erode their fixed returns. As bond prices fall, yields rise

❤️The massive cost of AI infrastructure has pushed tech giants to flood the market with high-yield corporate bonds, making long-term Treasuries less attractive and further driving up government bond yields

🔴 The US national debt has hit $40 trillion, while mortgage rates are climbing, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.75% on August 18, according to CNBC. As long-term Treasury yields drive up borrowing costs across the US economy, economists warn that another surge could squeeze US home buyers, hammer stocks and make America’s massive debt burden even harder to manage

🔴 Bessent has turned to bond-market manipulations just ahead of the midterms, as a housing affordability crisis or other fallout from rising long-term yields could prove politically disastrous for Team Trump

How will it work?

♦️ The Treasury will use large amounts of cash to buy back its own long-term bonds from the market

♦️ This artificial demand will push bond prices higher, automatically driving yields – and therefore borrowing costs – lower

♦️ To fund the move, the Treasury isn’t using tax dollars. Instead, it is issuing more ultrashort-term debt (T-bills) and replacing some longer-term debt with it

Economic schizophrenia, inflation and weakened dollar as a result

🔴 The Federal Reserve, led by Warsh, is trying to tame inflation by keeping rates high and cooling the economy – with a growing number of Fed officials seeking rate increases. Bessent is doing the opposite, artificially pushing rates down – leaving the Treasury and the Fed pulling in opposite directions and risking financial instability

🔴 By artificially lowering borrowing costs, Bessent could fuel spending, investment and short-term growth – a win Trump could claim. The downside: a fresh inflation surge

🔴 The US dollar is set to weaken and become the biggest loser of Bessent's move, Bloomberg predicts

Meanwhile, the forces driving US economic turmoil and soaring debt remain unresolved: the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, oil prices are surging, AI spending is booming and inflation is gathering steam. The US economy is running a fever – and Treasury intervention could make it only worse.

👍 Substack | Chat | @geopolitics_prime

🗣 Trump Weighs Crypto Purchases

Trump said the US is considering buying large volumes of BTC and other digital assets.

He urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, said the US aims to retain global crypto leadership over China and other countries, and said creating a CBDC in the US is prohibited.

The administration has created a strategic BTC reserve, signed the GENIUS Act, and launched Project Crypto. Trump said the war on crypto is over and the industry is growing again. He also called for Federal Reserve rate cuts, urged calm over Treasury-market volatility, and said a trade deal with Canada was possible.

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The main factor for EUR/USD right now is the rapid fading of the effect from yesterday’s intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the Treasuries market. The decision to increase the maximum volume of buybacks of long-term bonds at least from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation initially triggered a sharp rise in government bond prices and a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield falling to around 4.65% and the 30-year yield to 5.18-5.20%.

However, already today the market has begun to almost completely reverse this move. The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to the 4.68-4.70% area, while the 30-year yield has risen to around 5.24-5.26%, meaning that bonds are once again under pressure. This is a fundamentally important signal, as investors are viewing the Treasury’s actions more as temporary liquidity support rather than as a solution to the fundamental problem of high long-term interest rates.

For the dollar, this dynamic creates a more complicated picture than immediately after the Treasury’s announcement. Yesterday, the decline in yields sharply reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, DXY fell to three-month lows, while EUR/USD rose above 1.1600 and today tested the 1.1680-1.1710 area. Now, the recovery in yields potentially restores rate support for the dollar and may limit further upside in the pair.

At the same time, the dollar has so far failed to show a recovery comparable with the move in Treasuries, which points to continuing investor doubts regarding the U.S. debt market. The very fact that the Treasury had to intervene after the 30-year yield surged to its highest levels since 2007 has increased attention to the budget deficit, the enormous borrowing needs of the U.S. and the rising premium for holding long-term debt.

JPMorgan also warns that the increase in buybacks may only temporarily suppress yields and could ultimately even increase pressure on the long end of the curve if the market sees the authorities’ actions as an attempt to deal with the consequences rather than with the cause of rising borrowing costs.

That is why the near-term dynamics of EUR/USD now depend to a large extent not on yesterday’s Treasury decision itself, but on how quickly the Treasuries market fully neutralizes its effect. If the 10-year yield firmly consolidates above 4.70% and the 30-year yield again approaches 5.30%, the interest-rate differential could trigger profit-taking in the euro and push EUR/USD back below its recent highs.

If, however, the new wave of bond selling starts to be viewed as a sign of a deeper crisis of confidence in U.S. fiscal policy, the traditional relationship of “higher yields = stronger dollar” may weaken: higher yields would then primarily reflect an increase in the risk premium, which would potentially remain a negative factor for the USD. This divergence between rising Treasury yields and the dollar’s still weak reaction is currently one of the most important indicators for the FX market.

Thus, an important factor will be the ability of EUR/USD bulls to break resistance around 1.1700, or at least to consolidate above 1.1640-1.1620. Pullbacks toward these levels may attract buying interest, while a loss of the latter level could neutralize the effect of yesterday’s rally and signal a return of the pair to the range in which it traded before yesterday’s advance.

📊 Bitget UEX Daily | August 20, 2026

Market Snapshot • Total crypto cap: $2.45T (+7.2%) • BTC: around $70,000 (+7.9%) | ETH: $2,271 (+18.61%) • Stocks: Dow +0.22% (53,463.05) | S&P 500 +0.21% (7,707.98) | Nasdaq +0.16% (26,331.09) • Commodities: Gold $4,500/oz (-0.3%) | WTI $84.6/bbl (+0.32%) | DXY 98.84 (+0.05%)

📈 Key Levels • BTC Liquidation Map: – Around current price (~$69,600), the $69,000 area sees rapid convergence of long and short liquidation pressure, becoming a key short-term battleground – A break above $70,000 increases short-liquidation pressure overhead and could fuel further short covering; a drop below $69,000 risks concentrated long liquidations below

🔥 Hotspots Federal Reserve: July FOMC minutes showed more officials seeing a possible need for rate hikes (9–3 vote to hold, with three advocating +25 bp). Post-meeting soft employment and inflation data pushed September hike probability down from over 70% to around 36%. Hawkish tone offset by weaker data, cooling hike expectations and supporting risk assets via lower long-end yields. Geopolitical & Macro: Trump declared an “economic war” on Iran, threatening massive consequences for any country helping it evade sanctions. U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion (reaching $40.05T), with interest payments this year at $1.17T; Treasury doubled the single-auction limit for 10- to 30-year buybacks to at least $4 billion, driving a notable drop in long-end yields. Tech/AI & Pharma: Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (combined with Merck’s Keytruda) met primary endpoints in a late-stage trial, sending shares surging ~177% and lifting BioNTech ~22%, while Eli Lilly, J&J, AbbVie and Merck hit closing record highs. BTC broke above $70,000 with nearly $3 billion in 24h crypto liquidations (mostly shorts), boosted by Trump’s White House meeting with crypto executives and legislative push.

🏛 Institutional Views • Institutions interpret the expanded Treasury long-bond buybacks as a mild form of “Operation Twist,” suppressing yields and boosting risk appetite; Trump’s hard line on Iran sustains geopolitical premiums and underpins oil. • BTC’s reclaim of $70,000 and largest single-day gain since March was driven by large-scale short covering fueled by liquidity and policy narrative; ETF flows turned positive for three consecutive days—sustainability remains key. • Moderna’s positive trial result materially upgrades its oncology pipeline value and platform pricing power; after the sharp move, profit-taking and expectation gaps pose near-term risks.

🔗 Source: https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605705150

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