Interest rates — August 2026

From the Research Desk –

· Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping oil benchmarks bid. Brent crude rallied nearly 7% and is fast approaching US$90/barrel. President Trump recently said the Strait of Hormuz is open, but vessel flows do not reflect that, and the current situation shows both sides hardening their demands.

· Equities are treading water, with US cash equity indexes closing modestly lower on Monday, while regional indices were bid overnight in Asia (Tokyo was closed for a holiday). Investors are cautious ahead of key US inflation data tomorrow.

· The RBA held the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The immediate downside move in the AUD came on the back of the bank’s latest forecasts, which showed a downward revision to the cash rate to 4.4%, with the YY trimmed-mean inflation forecast also revised lower to 3.3% by year-end and to 3% by June 2027. Essentially, this signals to traders that the central bank does not see the need to hike rates to bring inflation down. However, in her press conference, RBA Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation risks remain to the upside and that a rate hike was discussed at the meeting.

· The JPY has now lost half of its gains against the USD following the coordinated intervention to support the yen. Fundamental change is needed here. The BoJ's July minutes show the board leaning hawkish: several members argued that inflation risks are now skewed to the upside – driven by yen weakness, Middle East oil costs, and AI-fuelled demand – and that rate hikes may need to come faster than markets expect, with one member framing it as a shift from ‘lifting inflation to 2%’ to ‘preventing an overshoot’. Policy was held steady this meeting only to assess the impact of the prior hike, but the tone points squarely towards a September move.

· US Treasuries fell amid inflation fears. Fed President Beth Hammack recently noted that it will likely take more than one rate hike to bring inflation down, comparing the approach to gradually pumping the brakes rather than slamming them, though she declined to prejudge the exact number of moves needed. This follows her dissent at the last FOMC meeting, where she favoured hiking. This also comes ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI inflation report and follows weak jobs data. Expectations are for the YY headline and core measures to come in slightly lower at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.

#FPMarkets #Forex #stocks #bonds #oil #markets

☕️ بریف جامع نهادی: کالبدشکافی استراتژیک هفته تمرکز کامل بازارهای کلان مالی در این هفته بر انتشار آمار تورم آمریکا (CPI) معطوف است که مسیر نرخ بهره فدرال رزرو (Federal Reserve) و جهت‌گیری شاخص دلار (DXY) را مشخص خواهد کرد.

🌍 نقشه حرارتی کلان و احساسات بازار

💵 شاخص دلار (DXY) روند فاندامنتال گشایش هفته: فشرده‌سازی قیمت زیر سطح مقاومت کلیدی با انتظار داده‌های تورم سنتیمنت غالب موسسات: احتیاطی / خنثی تا مایل به صعود سطح حساسیت تکنیکال: مقاومت 97.71 - 97.95

🇺🇸 اوراق 10 ساله آمریکا (US10Y) روند فاندامنتال گشایش هفته: تثبیت بازدهی پس از آمار ضعیف اشتغال و عدم قطعیت نرخ بهره سنتیمنت غالب موسسات: بازگشت ملایم انتظارات انقباضی سطح حساسیت تکنیکال: حمایت 4.60% / مقاومت 4.70%

💰 طلا (XAU/USD) روند فاندامنتال گشایش هفته: حمایت ناشی از ریسک‌های ژئوپلیتیک و افت بازدهی حقیقی سنتیمنت غالب موسسات: صعودی محتاطانه (Bullish) سطح حساسیت تکنیکال: مرز حساس 2,400 دلار

🤑 کریپتو / بیت‌کوین (BTC) روند فاندامنتال گشایش هفته: نوسان محدود در کانال مکس پین در آستانه رویدادهای تورمی سنتیمنت غالب موسسات: ریسک‌گریز موقت (Risk-off) سطح حساسیت تکنیکال: حمایت 64,500 دلار / مقاومت 68,000 دلار

💣 نقطه جوش تقویم (تریگرهای حاد هفته)

• نرخ تورم سالانه و ماهانه آمریکا (US CPI / Core CPI - چهارشنبه 12 اوت): اصلی‌ترین محرك نرخ بهره و تعیین‌کننده مسیر بازدهی اوراق قرضه و شاخص دلار در این هفته است. سناریوی صعودی DXY / نزولی کریپتو: ثبت تورم سالانه بالاتر از پیش‌بینی 3.4% یا تورم هسته ماهانه بالای 0.2%، احتمال حفظ نرخ‌های بهره بالا توسط فدرال رزرو را تقویت کرده و موجب جهش شاخص دلار (DXY)، رشد بازده اوراق (US10Y) و ریزش شدید طلا و بیت‌کوین خواهد شد.

سناریوی نزولی DXY / صعودی کریپتو: افت تورم سالانه به زیر 3.4% سناریوی کاهش نرخ بهره را فعال ساخته و منجر به تضعیف دلار و جهش دارایی‌های ریسکی (Risk-on) می‌گردد.

• تصمیم‌گیری نرخ بهره بانک مرکزی استرالیا (RBA Interest Rate Decision - سه‌شنبه 11 اوت): نخستین سنجش سیاست‌های پولی بانک‌های مرکزی G10 در این هفته محسوب می‌شود. سناریوی صعودی AUD: افزایش غیرمنتظره نرخ بهره از 4.35% یا اتخاذ لحن شدید انقباضی (Hawkish)، موجب تقویت دلار استرالیا و ایجاد موج ریسک‌گریزی در بازارهای منطقه‌ای می‌شود.

سناریوی خنثی/نزولی AUD: تثبیت نرخ در 4.35% همراه با لحن محافظه‌کارانه، فشار بر نقدینگی را کاهش داده و اثر مستقیمی بر بازار کریپتو نخواهد داشت.

🏦 رادار نهادی و آپشن کریپتو

1. جریان ورودی/خروجی ETFها (Spot ETF Flows): جریان ورودی ETFهای اسپات بیت‌کوین و اتریوم در گشایش هفته رو به کاهش گذاشته است که نشان‌دهنده ریسک‌زدایی موقت سرمایه‌گذاران سازمانی تا زمان روشن شدن داده‌های تورم آمریکا (CPI) است.

2. قیمت مکس پین (Max Pain Price): سطح قیمت مکس پین آپشن‌های بیت‌کوین در صرافی دریبیت (Deribit) در محدوده 65,000 دلار تثبیت شده که به عنوان نقطه گرانش قیمتی در انقضای هفتگی عمل می‌کند.

3. آزادسازی توکن‌ها (Token Unlocks): آزادسازی دوره‌ای توکن‌های VC و تیم پروژه‌ها در این هفته، فشار عرضه موضعی بر برخی آلت‌کوین‌ها وارد کرده و تمرکز نقدینگی را روی بیت‌کوین حفظ می‌کند.

🎯 دکترین معاملاتی هفته جهت‌گیری حرکتی (Directional Bias): با توجه به عدم قطعیت تورم آمریکا، دکترین معاملاتی هفته مبتنی بر حفظ نقدینگی، اجتناب از ورود پیش از انتشار آمار CPI و معامله بر اساس شکست‌های معتبر شاخص دلار در محدوده 97.70 است.

⚠️ توجه: این گزارش صرفاً جنبه آموزشی و تحلیلی دارد و پیشنهاد سرمایه‌گذاری نیست.

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Asian stocks advance as Wall Street rebound and weaker U.S. jobs data lift sentiment

Asian equity markets mostly rose on Monday, led by gains in Japan and South Korea, after a Wall Street rally and softer U.S. labor data. The weaker July jobs report pushed the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike down to about 43%-44%.

• Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Friday after the U.S. jobs report. • Asian chipmakers recovered after a bruising week, with SK Hynix and Kioxia among notable gainers. • Oil prices strengthened as Iran tied reopening the Strait of Hormuz to additional U.S. conditions.

@OtetMarkets_en

🗓 تقویم اقتصادی (به تایم ایران)

📅 سه‌شنبه، ۱۱ اوت | ۰۵:۰۰ 🇦🇺 استرالیا | ارز: دلار استرالیا (Australian Dollar - AUD) 📌 رویداد: شاخص اعتماد کسب‌وکار NAB (NAB Business Confidence) قبلی: -5 | پیش‌بینی: نامشخص | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی AUD: ثبت عددی بالاتر و مثبت‌تر از ۵- (بهبود اعتماد تجاری). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: اثر مستقیم بسیار محدود/خنثی؛ تقویت جزئی دلار استرالیا فشار بسیار ناچیزی بر شاخص دلار وارد می‌کند.

📅 سه‌شنبه، ۱۱ اوت | ۰۸:۰۰ 🇦🇺 استرالیا | ارز: دلار استرالیا (Australian Dollar - AUD) 📌 رویداد: تصمیم‌گیری نرخ بهره بانک مرکزی استرالیا (RBA Interest Rate Decision) قبلی: 4.35% | پیش‌بینی: 4.35% | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی AUD: تصمیم غیرمنتظره به افزایش نرخ بهره به بالاتر از ۴.۳۵٪ یا اتخاذ لحن شدید انقباضی (Hawkish). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: افزایش نرخ بهره موجب تقویت دلار استرالیا و افزایش ریسک‌گریزی جهانی می‌شود که برای نقدینگی بیت‌کوین کاهشی (Risk-off) است.

📅 سه‌شنبه، ۱۱ اوت | ۱۷:۳۰ 🇺🇸 ایالات متحده | ارز: دلار آمریکا (US Dollar - USD) 📌 رویداد: فروش خانه‌های موجود (Existing Home Sales) قبلی: 4.09M | پیش‌بینی: 4.04M | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی USD: انتشار عددی بالاتر از پیش‌بینی ۴.۰۴ میلیون (نشان‌دهنده رونق بازار مسکن). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: تقویت شاخص دلار (DXY) و افزایش احتمال حفظ نرخ‌های بهره بالاتر، که برای دارایی‌های ریسکی کاهشی (Risk-off) خواهد بود.

📅 چهارشنبه، ۱۲ اوت | ۱۶:۰۰ 🇺🇸 ایالات متحده | ارز: دلار آمریکا (US Dollar - USD) 📌 رویداد: نرخ تورم هسته ماهانه (Core Inflation Rate MoM) قبلی: 0% | پیش‌بینی: 0.2% | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی USD: ثبت عددی بالاتر از پیش‌بینی ۰.۲٪ (تشدید فشارهای تورمی هسته). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: تقویت شاخص دلار (DXY) و کاهش احتمال تسهیل سیاست پولی فدرال رزرو که پیامد کاهشی (Risk-off) برای کریپتو دارد.

📅 چهارشنبه، ۱۲ اوت | ۱۶:۰۰ 🇺🇸 ایالات متحده | ارز: دلار آمریکا (US Dollar - USD) 📌 رویداد: نرخ تورم هسته سالانه (Core Inflation Rate YoY) قبلی: 2.6% | پیش‌بینی: 2.5% | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی USD: انتشار عددی بالاتر از پیش‌بینی ۲.۵٪ (پایداری تورم ساختاری). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: صعود DXY و اعمال فشار انقباضی بر بازارهای مالی که منجر به کاهش (Risk-off) نقدینگی بیت‌کوین می‌گردد.

📅 چهارشنبه، ۱۲ اوت | ۱۶:۰۰ 🇺🇸 ایالات متحده | ارز: دلار آمریکا (US Dollar - USD) 📌 رویداد: نرخ تورم ماهانه (Inflation Rate MoM) قبلی: -0.4% | پیش‌بینی: 0.1% | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی USD: ثبت عددی بالاتر از پیش‌بینی ۰.۱٪ (بازگشت تورم عمومی به مسیر صعودی). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: تقویت سریع دلار آمریکا و خروج سرمایه از دارایی‌های پرریسک که پیامد کاهشی (Risk-off) برای کریپتو دارد.

📅 چهارشنبه، ۱۲ اوت | ۱۶:۰۰ 🇺🇸 ایالات متحده | ارز: دلار آمریکا (US Dollar - USD) 📌 رویداد: نرخ تورم سالانه (Inflation Rate YoY) قبلی: 3.5% | پیش‌بینی: 3.4% | واکنش بازار: ↗️ تریگر صعودی USD: انتشار عددی بالاتر از پیش‌بینی ۳.۴٪ (عدم کاهش تورم مطابق انتظارات). 📉 اثر روی کریپتو: تاخیر در تسهیل سیاست‌های پولی فدرال رزرو، صعود DXY و ایجاد روند کاهشی (Risk-off) در کریپتو.

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Here’s a quick look at our plans for the coming days:

1. Staking interest rates will be slightly reduced tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow, we’ll tokenize several gold and silver commemorative coins issued by the National Bank of Ukraine. 3. A new event dedicated to Ukraine’s Independence Day will also launch tomorrow or the day after. 4. Tomorrow, the Top 100 participants of our U.S. Independence Day Event will receive their prizes! 5. We’re actively preparing for fundraising through our private round on WeFunder. Once completed, this will allow us to launch a full-scale tokenization pipeline on our RWA platform. 6. We’re finishing the last content monetization features and fixing the remaining bugs.

Thank you for being with us, we have an amazing future ahead!

Sl8 (Slate) | Website | Telegram Channel | Telegram Chat | X (Twitter) | Instagram | Facebook | CoinMarketCap (SSLX)

Question of the day: Interest Rate

🔗 Launch 🗓 Aug 9 #Dropee

The Federal Reserve is prepared to hike interest rates at its September meeting if upcoming inflation data remains elevated and inflation expectations continue to trend higher, according to FT sources.

S&P 500 Closes at Record High; 85.1% of Reporting Companies Beat Expectations

Reuters reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, defying economists’ expectations for an increase of 80,000. Payroll gains for the previous two months were also revised sharply lower. Following the report, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to about 44%, from 55% in the previous session.

The S&P 500 rose 0.62% on August 7 to a record closing high. Corporate earnings also supported the market: of the 436 S&P 500 companies that had reported results by Friday morning, 85.1% exceeded analysts’ expectations, compared with the historical average of 68% since 1994. — link

🚨 Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop

• The Fed is no longer expected to hike rates at the September FOMC meeting.

• Markets are now pricing in a more stable rate outlook for September.

Random thoughts:

1. The war in Europe can end quickly and peacefully and must. 2. America can still gracefully exit the war in the Middle East and should. 3. A NUCLEAR exchange is still not out of the question. 4. Our national debt will never be repaid causing our economy to eventually take a nose dive. 5. Our election system and processes are still broken and corrupt and little has been done to fix them. 6. We still allow China to send ten of thousands of students to American universities to rip us off of massive amounts of intellectual property all of which is sent back to China to use against the United States. 7. We have no idea exactly how many humans have illegally entered our country and allowing any of them to stay is not helpful. 8. Our elementary and secondary public school education system is completely broken, although we spend the most money of developed nations on the planet. 9. The rise of Islamism and communism in America is a direct result of many issues however, one is the total corruption of the uniparty and its deep state cohorts in our overly bloated federal government. 10. Our economy is on life support, where adjusting of interest rates one way or the other will send shock waves across the world (and our President has zero control over this adjustment—why?) and if we don’t focus on our own hemisphere for energy and worry less about China, Europe, the Middle East, and other parts of the world, the one advantage we’ve had for nearly a hundred years (ie., our economy), goes away and so do we.

If you see this as a reality check, that is what it is. My main concern is the future of America for our children and grandchildren. Beyond that it becomes another generation’s problem.

Wake up America and take our country back one county at a time.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve is now anticipated to pause interest rate hikes next month, following the U.S.'s third-largest monthly drop in jobs since 2020.

BeaconChain

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve is no longer projected to raise interest rates next month after US records 3rd largest monthly job loss since 2020.

@WatcherGuru

Gold Now: Best Week Since January as Hike Bets Collapse

Gold is heading for its best week since January. Wednesday's breakout continues!

The thesis I laid out on Wednesday rested on the rate path turning.

I'm not going to re-write the NFP breakdown since it's located above on the DXY markup.

But here's what I will say: Rate hike odds got scaled back pretty meaningfully. And, lower interest rates make gold more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets as bullion does not generate interest.

Price tagged 4,372.86 and pulled back. That level around 4,355 to 4,375 rejected gold in mid-June and it is the first real test since. A Friday afternoon after a 7% week usually gives some back.

I'm watching these key fib levels: The 0.382 at 4,236.78 already held once. Below that is 4,190 to 4,225, where broken resistance meets the 0.5 at 4,194.74.

The 200-day near 4,480 is still overhead. That is the first real target I'm aiming for.

read the full article here.

— Alan

Gold extends gains as Middle East tensions and Fed outlook drive demand

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,264.22 an ounce at 01:04 ET on Friday. Prices tracked escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

• Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz heightened geopolitical risks and supported safe-haven demand. • Traders awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. • Chinese gold ETFs saw 14 straight sessions of inflows, helping stabilize prices despite macro headwinds.

@OtetMarkets_en

💴 Traders are betting against the yen at near-record levels

Bearish bets on the Japanese yen have climbed to the second-highest level on record, even after Japan and the U.S. reportedly spent $88 billion trying to support the currency.

Combined net short positions have reached 205,000 contracts, while USD/JPY has already rebounded from 155 after the intervention to around 158.5.

The market's message is clear: intervention can slow the move, but it can't fix the underlying problem. As long as the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan remains wide, traders continue betting on a weaker yen.

The last time positioning became this one-sided, the unwind triggered sharp moves across global markets.

✔️ @venture

📊 3 Things That Will Decide the Market Today

🔴 GIFT NIFTY (Gift City Cues) Gift Nifty is down 0.4%. Brent crude has jumped above $83/bbl on renewed Hormuz concerns, while investors await the US jobs data later today.

🌍 Macro / Global Cues US markets fell up to 0.5% on rate hike and geopolitical worries, while Asian markets declined up to 2% led by tech stocks. European markets gained up to 0.5%. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,250/oz as crude surged 4% above $83/bbl.

📈 Options Data & Key Levels 👉 Nifty 24400 to 24900 zones 👉 Sensex 78500 to 79500 zones 👉 Bank Nifty 57500 to 59000 zones

Motilal Oswal's Daily Fundamental & Technical picks👉

Fundamental Picks (for more than a year) 1.Eternal - Target 400 (27%) 2.Adani Ports- Target 2130(26%) 3.Syrma SGS Tech - Target 1770 (25%) 4.M&M- Target 4108 (21%) 5.Lenskart Solutions - Target 655(16%)

Technical Pick - UNION BANK OF INDIA BUY Previous Close: 182 Target: 195 Potential upside: ~7%

📊 Bitget UEX Daily | August 7, 2026

Market Snapshot • Total crypto cap: $2.28T (-0.5%) • BTC: $64,374 (-0.24%) | ETH: $1,901 (-0.24%) • Stocks: Dow -0.85% (53,885.10) | S&P 500 -0.18% (7,709.96) | Nasdaq -0.06% (26,348.35) • Commodities: Gold $4,252/oz (+0.3%) | WTI ~$77.5/bbl (+2.9%–3.0%) | DXY 99.95 (+0.01%)

📈 Key Levels • BTC Liquidation Map: – Below current price ($63,000–$64,000): Significant long liquidation pressure remains – Above ($65,000–$66,000): Dense short liquidation zone (sustained breakout could trigger further short covering; price currently near the long/short liquidation watershed, suggesting elevated short-term volatility)

🔥 Hotspots Geopolitical: Trump stated that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “cannot yet be said to have been formally reached,” but the strait is currently “somewhat open,” with the U.S. participating in negotiations. Iran is advancing a bill that would ban vessels from the U.S., Israel and other adversarial countries, with fines up to 20% of cargo value; a Saudi official said intelligence indicates Iran is planning attacks on Saudi Arabia with observed drone and missile movements. Geopolitical risk premium rose again, driving a sharp oil rebound and increasing near-term crude volatility. Central Bank: Fed official Musalem said the probability of inflation remaining persistently above target has increased; he was inclined toward rate hikes at the most recent FOMC meeting and believes gradual hikes carry lower costs than sudden large adjustments. He noted U.S. economic resilience and emphasized that future AI-driven productivity gains remain highly uncertain, with risks skewed toward higher inflation. Hawkish remarks reinforce September rate-hike expectations, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks while supporting the dollar and precious metals. Tech/AI: SpaceX and Tesla launched the Terafab AI chip super-factory project in Texas with an initial $16.8 billion investment, aiming for one of the world’s largest chip manufacturing sites with vertical integration of logic, memory, packaging and testing to serve Optimus, Cybercab and space data centers. Nvidia is considering a lower HBM configuration for next-gen Rubin Ultra to address advanced memory shortages. Memory sector continued sharp declines (Western Digital -13%, SanDisk -7%, etc.) after earlier guidance missed elevated expectations; Trump imposed a 15% tariff on polysilicon and banned exports of tungsten and battery scrap to reinforce supply-chain localization.

🏛 Institutional Views • Market interpretation: The Terafab project reflects the Musk companies’ urgent need for AI compute self-sufficiency and underscores ongoing shortages of advanced chips and HBM, reinforcing the long-term narrative of vertical integration and in-house capacity—long-term positive for related equipment, materials and packaging/test supply chains. • Nvidia’s HBM adjustment is viewed as a supply-chain constraint on hardware delivery cadence rather than weakening demand; the long-term AI compute thesis remains solid, with focus on HBM supply improvements. • Memory sector: Medium- to long-term AI storage demand remains intact with resilient enterprise SSD and HBM-related demand, but high-valuation names are highly sensitive to expectation gaps; near-term action driven more by sentiment and valuation digestion.

🔗 Source: https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605633694

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation is higher than expected.

💧 Rainbet.com the #1 Non-KYC Crypto Casino @rainbetcom

🐦 The Head of the Fed Does Not Rule Out a Rate Hike in September

Kevin Warsh is ready to raise the interest rate as early as September if inflation turns out to be higher than expected.

The further decision will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, primarily new inflation reports.

💬 Post in January: Twitter is confident that Warsh's appointment will have a positive impact on cryptocurrency, as he has spoken favorably about digital assets.

Did it have a positive effect, guys?

🇺🇸Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicates that interest rates might increase in September if inflation exceeds expectations.

📇Stay connected with us: X | Instagram | YouTube

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggests a potential rate hike in September if inflation comes in higher than anticipated.

BeaconChain

BREAKING NEWS: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is ready to increase interest rates in September if inflation exceeds forecasts.

FT: Warsh is prepared to consider a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting if upcoming data confirm persistent inflationary pressures and inflation expectations continue to rise, sources say.

Looks like Trump may have miscalculated somewhere))

📊 Bitget UEX Daily | August 6, 2026

Market Snapshot • Total crypto cap: $2.29T (+0.9%) • BTC: $64,100 (+0.94%) | ETH: $1,909 (+2.43%) • Stocks: Dow +0.49% (54,349) | S&P 500 -0.17% (7,723.55) | Nasdaq -0.83% (26,363) • Commodities: Gold $4,283/oz (+0.91%) | WTI $75.57/bbl (+0.47%) | DXY 99.67 (-0.01%)

📈 Key Levels • BTC Liquidation Map: – Above current price (~$64,592), the $65,000–$66,000 zone holds dense short liquidations (a sustained breakout could trigger further short covering) – Below ($63,000–$64,000): Relatively concentrated long-liquidation pressure; overall long/short liquidation size has expanded, warranting caution on sharp volatility after any breakout

🔥 Hotspots Geopolitical: Iran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a new safe commercial shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint statement entering the final drafting stage. However, the agreement does not mean immediate safe navigation, as U.S. maritime blockade threats remain; Iran is seeking fees of 5%–7% of cargo value. Progress continues to suppress the crude risk premium, while gold surged toward $4,300 on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Cook stated she is prepared to support rate hikes if inflation does not moderate, warning that five consecutive years of above-target inflation raise the risk of it becoming entrenched. She supported the July hold but noted policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting for a full return to 2%. Fading tariff effects, lower oil prices, and easing AI-related pressures could provide some buffer. Tech/AI: SanDisk and Western Digital reported strong results but guidance missed elevated expectations, triggering sharp after-hours sell-offs. Nvidia rose more than 3% on news that SpaceX will exclusively use its Vera Rubin AI architecture. Google fell more than 4% on a major AI division leadership overhaul. SpaceX faces its first major unlock (approx. 912 million shares), with a potential market value near $100 billion—the largest single unlock in U.S. market history.

🏛 Institutional Views • Institutions see Hormuz negotiation progress continuing to compress the oil risk premium, while gold’s surge reflects renewed safe-haven demand. The Dow hit a fresh record high, but tech showed clear divergence. • SanDisk and Western Digital’s guidance misses triggered profit-taking in high-valuation storage names, highlighting extreme sensitivity to expectation gaps. Nvidia’s SpaceX endorsement reinforced the AI hardware narrative. • Crypto stabilized with ETF flows turning to net inflows. Near-term focus remains on non-farm payrolls data and the impact of the SpaceX unlock on risk-asset sentiment.

🔗 Source: https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605620509

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