Interest rates — August 2026

🇺🇸 Officials at the Federal Reserve indicate that additional interest rate increases may be necessary if inflation fails to decrease.

Tonight at 11:30 PM, a very important FOMC Minutes is coming.

But how will we know if the market can move up or down?

🔴 Hawkish: If most officials say inflation is still too high, the market can turn bearish.

🟢 Dovish: If officials say the economy is slowing and rate cuts may be needed, the market can turn bullish.

⚪ Neutral: If officials give mixed signals and say the next move depends on the data, the market can stay volatile.

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➡🥇➡ Gold trades below $4,350 as Fed minutes near. Bullish and bearish scenarios in focus

XAUUSD traded near $4,340 on Wednesday, after falling nearly 2% in the previous session. It sits under resistance at $4,430, while support lies at $4,200. Discover which levels could activate the next trading scenario 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. On Tuesday, gold fell nearly 2% as Treasury yields climbed. Higher global bond yields increased pressure on the non-yielding metal, while a softer U.S. dollar partly limited the decline 💲

• Background. The 10-year yield traded around 4.7%, while the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. After the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold rates, soft U.S. economic data and cooler inflation decreased expectations of a September rate hike. Markets now price about a 64% chance of a hold in September.

• Potential triggers. The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes are due today at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Traders will assess whether broader support existed for tighter policy.

🪙 Tip for traders

Watch for gold to hold the $4,200 support. If price breaks above the $4,430 resistance, you could see further gains. For the bearish case, watch for a fall below $4,200, which could expose the $3,970 floor. Minutes pointing to a more aggressive, rate-hike-leaning stance may strengthen this downside view.

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There is no new Federal Reserve rate decision in August — but markets will still be listening closely. 👀

On August 19, the Fed is scheduled to publish the minutes from its July meeting. The minutes can provide more detail on how policymakers viewed: 📊 Inflation 👥 Employment 🏦 Interest rates 🔎 The economic outlook

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They do not announce a new decision, but they may offer additional context behind the Fed’s latest position.

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🔔 On Wednesday, August 19 at 6:00 am UTC, the UK will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

The main gauge of UK inflation, it guides the Bank of England when it sets interest rates.

Hotter inflation keeps rates high for longer, driving GBP up and pushing GBP/USD up. Cooling inflation signals rate cuts, dragging GBP down and pulling GBP/USD down.

CPI (YoY): 📊 Previous: 2.6% 📊 Forecast: 3.0%

The market has already priced in the 3.0% forecast, so a big move needs a surprise in the actual number.

Here’s how the market could react this time: ↗️ Data above 3.0% may drive GBP/USD up ↘️ Data below 3.0% may drive GBP/USD down

📌 How to trade on the news with Olymptrade:

1. Open Olymptrade in FT/Forex mode 10 minutes before the release. 2. Select GBP/USD. 3. Set your trade amount and duration (5–15 minutes recommended). 4. Use a pending order to execute at the exact moment of release. 5. Make your forecast.

What’s your forecast?

👍 GBP/USD will go up 👎 GBP/USD will go down

The "exit problem" refers to the difficulty private equity firms currently face in selling companies they acquired during the peak valuation years of 2020 and 2021.

High Purchase Prices: Deals struck during the market boom were executed at very high valuations.

Rising Interest Rates: Increased interest rates have made debt-financed buyouts much more expensive, making it harder to justify the price tags and achieve the expected returns.

Holding Back Assets: Many firms are choosing to hold onto these companies longer than anticipated, hoping that waiting for better market conditions will eventually yield a higher value.

As a result, there is now a significant backlog of over 33,000 companies held by private equity firms, which has led to lower capital distributions to investors.

🏦 AI-Driven Tech Prices Complicate the Fed's Inflation Fight

Rising prices for computers, cell phones, and other high-tech goods are removing a reliable buffer the Federal Reserve has historically counted on to keep overall inflation in check.

Falling tech prices have long offset inflationary pressure elsewhere in the economy. With AI-related costs now pushing those prices higher, that cushion is eroding — adding complexity to the Fed's decisions on interest rates.

The development increases pressure on policymakers at a time when the Fed is already navigating a difficult path between controlling inflation and avoiding unnecessary economic slowdown.

Source

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➡💶➡ Euro trading scenarios: which levels could activate the next move

EURUSD trades near 1.1540, up about 0.1%. It holds below resistance at 1.1560 inside a narrow range. Find the bullish and bearish setups below 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. The euro has traded in a tight band, with live prices around 1.1525–1.1542 💶 Neither the nearby support nor the resistance has broken. Momentum indicators show signs of weakening bullish momentum.

• Background. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its target range on 29 July 2026. Markets now lean toward another hold on 16 September, with the probability near 65%, while a rate hike is priced at about 35%. These rate expectations, as well as oil-price swings and Strait of Hormuz tensions, remain key macro drivers for the euro.

• Potential triggers. Three releases could shape the next move. The eurozone GDP and preliminary Q2 employment data arrive at 9:00 a.m. UTC. Also, U.S. retail sales for July follow at 12:30 p.m. UTC (forecast: +0.3% month-on-month; consensus: +0.1%; previous: +0.2%).

🪙 Tip for traders

If the price breaks above 1.1560, the bullish scenario could target weekly resistance at 1.1645 📈 Softer U.S. data could support that move by pressuring the dollar. A break below support at 1.1470 would favour the bearish case toward the 50-day moving average around 1.1466. Stronger U.S. data could strengthen that scenario by boosting the dollar.

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📊 What do the latest US CPI and PPI data mean for crypto markets?

US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI eased to 2.5% YoY. Producer prices were flat MoM, with PPI slowing to 4.7% YoY from 5.5% in June.

The softer inflation readings have reduced expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, potentially supporting risk appetite and liquidity sentiment across crypto markets. However, renewed energy price pressures could complicate the inflation outlook and keep Fed policy uncertain.

Read more 👇 https://panews.io/articles/019ff967-dfab-72ae-a1aa-725a7a132427 https://www.reuters.com/business/us-producer-prices-unchanged-july-2026-08-13/

BOJ seen preparing September rate hike amid rising inflation concerns

The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates as soon as its September 17-18 meeting and may quicken the pace of subsequent hikes. Policymakers are increasingly alarmed by persistent inflation pressures, the weak yen and strong global demand, especially for AI.

• BOJ has lifted rates roughly twice a year since ending massive stimulus in 2024. • The policy rate reached a 31-year high of 1% after a hike in June. • Markets now price nearly an 80% chance of a September rate increase, with December also in view.

@OtetMarkets_en

PPI & CPI inflation dropped to a 4-month low.

Odds of rate hike dropped from 55% to 32%.

Bullish for markets.

Where's The Alpha?

All Aditya Birla Group companies to pay brand royalty

PSU Banks- RBI's draft guidelines on interest rates on loans and advances

HAL-Rs 1 lakh crore tender for 60 multirole transport aircraft

MSCI Changes In Standard Index-Additions: Adani Energy Solutions, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, Laurus Labs, Lenskart Solutions

Q1 Earnings-Vadilal Industries,  IndiQube Spaces, KRN Heat Exchangers,  Gujarat Pipavav Ports, Aditya Infotech, Bliss GVS Pharma, Sansera Engineering

Bajel Projects, GE Power-Order wins

Arrow Greentech-Receives Indian patent for ‘Dual Colour Shift Security Film’.

Ester Industries: The company’s JV signs a non-binding Letter of Intent with a leading global sports and athletic brand for supply of Loop PET Fiber Grade resin.

Raj Rayon Industries-Approves a Rs. 650 crore Phase-II expansion at its Silvassa unit.

Dr Agarwal's Health Care, Tenneco Clean Air India-MF buying

TruAlt Bioenergy-Promoter buying

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Stock Market Today | August 13, 2026

Market Setup - Gift Nifty around 24,420. - Signals mildly negative opening. - Nifty futures discount ~51 points. - Nifty closed at 24,435.95. - Sensex closed at 77,966.35. - IT stocks faced selling pressure.

Asian Markets - Asian markets traded higher. - Japan Nikkei +1.06%. - Topix +0.60%. - South Korea Kospi +4.14%. - Kosdaq +0.81%. - Chip stocks led regional gains.

Wall Street - US markets ended mostly higher. - Dow Jones -0.04%. - S&P 500 +0.26%. - Nasdaq +0.54%. - Mild inflation eased rate concerns. - Fed hike expectations reduced.

MSCI Rejig - Adani Energy Solutions added. - Lenskart Solutions added. - Groww added. - Laurus Labs added. - Astral removed. - Balkrishna Industries removed. - SBI Cards removed. - Changes effective August 31.

Inflation Data - US July CPI rose 0.1%. - June CPI declined 0.4%. - US inflation remained relatively mild. - Rate hike fears eased. - India July CPI reached 4.45%. - June CPI stood at 4.38%. - Inflation above RBI median target.

Key Factors To Watch - Gift Nifty opening signal. - Asian market strength. - US inflation trajectory. - Fed rate expectations. - India inflation trend. - MSCI passive fund flows. - IT sector weakness. - Foreign investor activity.

Market Impact - Neutral to Mildly Positive. - Global cues remain supportive. - Gift Nifty signals cautious opening. - Strong Asian markets provide support. - Lower US rate fears help sentiment. - Domestic inflation remains a concern. - MSCI changes may drive stock-specific flows.

Sectors To Watch

All Aditya Birla Group companies to pay brand royalty

PSU Banks- RBI's draft guidelines on interest rates on loans and advances

HAL-Rs 1 lakh crore tender for 60 multirole transport aircraft

MSCI Changes In Standard Index-Additions: Adani Energy Solutions, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, Laurus Labs, Lenskart Solutions+Deletions: Astral, Balkrishna Industries, SBI Cards and Payment

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Forecasted Core CPI is showing an increase in inflation - which could potentially suggest a future Interest Rate Hike to battle that inflation.✍️

Data is getting published in the next 15 minues. 👁️

We will evalution the market once the data is published!🔋👏

Today, we have CPI (interest rate) scheduled at 08:30 am EST

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➡🥇➡ Gold near $4,400: levels that could shape the next move

Gold futures traded near $4,418 per ounce, while spot gold moved above $4,400. The key level to watch is resistance at $4,423, and support sits at $4,200. Keep reading to see where the price may head next 💙

🪙 Key takeaways • Events. XAUUSD attracted buyers near $4,350 and then rose further, gaining 7.1% over the week. Gold futures are up more than 8% so far in August 🥇

• Background. Geopolitical tensions increased after attacks on shipping and a North Korean missile launch. Oil also rose, with U.S. crude approaching $83.90 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's rate stands at 3.50%–3.75%, and markets still expect a rate hike this year.

• Report to track. The July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is due today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Economists expect inflation to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June. A lower-than-expected reading could support gold.

🪙 Tip for traders

Watch how gold reacts around $4,423 after the CPI release. A close above $4,423 could open the path towards $4,498. If the price breaks below $4,200, it may fall towards $3,970.

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What could move market expectations? Inflation is back in focus this week. 👀

On August 12, the US Consumer Price Index will show how prices changed for consumers. One day later, the Producer Price Index will provide a look at price changes from the perspective of producers.

Why watch both? 📊 CPI reflects changes in consumer prices. 🏭 PPI tracks prices received by producers. Together, these reports can shape expectations around inflation, interest rates, currencies, indices, and company shares.

But remember: economic data does not guarantee a particular market direction. The reaction often depends on how the figures compare with expectations.

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Follow key market events on Binomo. 18+ | T&Cs apply | Trading involves risk.

Gold holds near two-month high as rally extends despite firm dollar

Spot gold climbed to $4,407.79 an ounce at 00:56 ET on Tuesday, extending recent gains. The move comes ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

• Gold rose after Friday’s 2.4% jump following weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. • Analysts cite FOMO buying, short-covering, safe-haven demand, and China’s central bank purchases. • Iran-related Hormuz uncertainty and higher oil prices are supporting bullion through inflation concerns.

@OtetMarkets_en

From the Research desk:

US CPI inflation preview -

Tomorrow will welcome the July US CPI inflation report at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations heading into the event suggest headline and core YY inflation will ease to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively.

Ultimately, a number of desks have flagged possible downside for yields and the USD if data surprises lower. Hitting 3.2% at the YY headline level (under the estimate low) and 2.3% for YY core (also below the forecast low) would be enough to catch market participants off guard.

A downside surprise would also follow weak US jobs data – which saw 23,000 jobs lost and average wage growth slow – prompting a dovish Fed rate repricing. That said, the recent flare-up between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation expectations and pulling markets back toward pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end, with about a 35% chance implied for September's meeting. A soft CPI print would need to unwind that hawkish repricing, aided by USD positioning that's already overstretched to the upside.

A hotter-than-expected inflation print, on the other hand, could be messier, because it collides with still-soft labour data, forcing the Fed to weigh two conflicting mandates at once. It would likely fully price in a rate increase by year-end, and pull September’s meeting firmly into 50/50 territory.