🇮🇱🤔 Why Israel’s Syria strike may signal Netanyahu's desperation amid unfolding Turkish power play
Israel’s strike on a Syrian military base may look, on the surface, like PM Benjamin Netanyahu flexing his muscles ahead of the October elections in Israel. But it could also be a harbinger of a far more consequential geopolitical shift in the region.
Pre-election PR stunt?
Israel struck the abandoned Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria’s north-western Idlib province early on August 18 following a visit by a Turkish delegation. The strike has ignited a heated controversy:
➡️ Israel didn't give Turkey advance notice of the airstrikes, despite the two countries having begun talks in April 2025 to establish a military deconfliction channel concerning Syria
➡️ While Israel claims that "Syria was on the verge of breaching [agreements] by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo," Syria says that there had been no plans of that kind and that the base was being rehabilitated for use by the Syrian Air Force with the assistance of the Turkish side
➡️ Turkey vehemently rejected Israel's claims, stressing on X that the accusations came from "Netanyahu's intent to continue his expansionist and destabilizing policies in the region ahead of elections in Israel"
➡️ Netanyahu’s need for a high-profile show of strength ahead of the Knesset election is quite understandable, experts say, given that he has launched three wars – in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran – and is not winning any of them. Still, they warn that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a backer of Syria's de facto ruler al-Julani, is also eyeing elections in 2028 and has little interest in appearing weak
💬 Desperate warning to the emerging 'Sunni NATO'?
The Israeli strikes followed the formation of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement by Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, already dubbed the Sunni NATO. Middle East Eye's David Hearst, in particular, highlights that the Mecca agreement came as a surprise to Emirati and Israeli intelligence services and was met with disappointment by their respective leaderships. While the pact is seen by many as a sign of waning US influence in the Middle East, it could also be aimed at countering Israel's growing assertiveness. Previously, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had hinted at the need for a Muslim alliance in response to Israel's genocide in Gazа.
Given that, Israeli strikes against reported Turkish positions in Syria may be aimed at undermining Ankara's image as a key pillar of the defense pact, while sending a veiled message that Israel has little regard for the emerging Sunni security architecture. Israel’s moves also suggest that it increasingly sees Turkey as a potential threat – echoing former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s warning that Turkey could become “the next Iran” for Israel. And not just Turkey, but Turkey's growing alliance with Sunni powers, as Middle East Monitor highlighted back in February.
Most recently, Erdogan signaled that Egypt could become part of the joint defense agreement, while Qatar and Kuwait may also sign up, experts suggest. Even if Egypt does not formally join, Israel is already alarmed by growing Saudi-Egyptian satellite cooperation and expanding surveillance capabilities.
Already overstretched on multiple fronts, Israel could hardly afford to take on the “Sunni NATO” and its allies – making Netanyahu’s attack look more like desperation than a show of strength.
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